Pending home sales numbers came out recently and they were not pretty, at least on a national level. The headlines wrote themselves. But I’ve been through enough cycles in three Texas markets to know that a national number is a little like a statewide weather forecast — technically accurate, practically useless for deciding whether to carry an umbrella on your specific street.
Here’s what I’m actually seeing, and why I think the picture is more uneven than the headlines suggest.
The National Number and Why I Don’t Lead With It
Pending sales fell again. Depending on which data pull you’re looking at, we’re somewhere around multi-year lows on a seasonally adjusted basis, with some months running 20-plus percent below where we were in 2021. That’s a real decline. Nobody is pretending otherwise.
But here’s the thing: that aggregate masks a lot. A market like Austin’s central east side is not moving the same way as, say, a suburb of El Paso, or a mid-tier neighborhood in a smaller Hill Country town. When you average those together, you get a number that doesn’t fully describe any of them.
I’ve watched my own block on the east side go quiet when rates spiked, then watched two houses sell in the same week last spring before they ever hit the MLS. Neither of those data points shows up cleanly in a national pending sales figure.
What’s Slowing Down and Where
The slowdown is most visible in markets that ran hardest during the pandemic years. Austin is the clearest Texas example. In the 78702 and 78722 zip codes — the ones that basically doubled in price between 2019 and 2022 — there’s been a real hangover. More days on market, more price cuts, more for-sale signs sitting longer than they used to.
I noticed a house on Chicon sitting for close to 70 days a few months ago. That would have been unthinkable in 2021, when the same type of bungalow would have had twelve offers by the second weekend. Now buyers have time to think. Some of them are deciding not to buy at all, which is exactly what the pending sales number is picking up.
Same story showing up in parts of suburban Houston that built fast and priced aggressively — certain pockets of Katy and Sugar Land where new construction oversupply met rate shock. Builders are dealing with their own version of this math problem as completed inventory sits.
The common thread in the slowest markets right now tends to be:
- Prices that stretched well beyond local income levels during the run-up
- Higher concentrations of investor-bought properties that are now being liquidated
- New construction supply that didn’t get absorbed before rates climbed
- Longer commutes that aren’t worth it when remote work flexibility shrinks
Where It’s Holding Steadier
Here’s what doesn’t make the national headlines as often: there are pockets where pending sales are actually holding up reasonably well.
Neighborhoods with good school districts and limited resale inventory tend to be stickier. I’ve been watching parts of far north Fort Worth — Keller ISD territory, around the Timberland Boulevard corridor — and well-priced inventory there still moves. Not 2021 fast, but not stagnant either. Some of that is the suburban growth pushing west of Fort Worth that has been drawing buyers who got priced out of closer-in neighborhoods.
Smaller Texas cities are a mixed bag. Some of them — San Marcos comes to mind, also parts of Bryan-College Station — have enough anchored demand from universities and employers that they’re buffered from the sharpest swings. Pending sales slow, but they don’t crater.
The other group holding steadier: move-up buyers in the $400K–$600K range in markets where that still buys a meaningful house. That buyer is often less rate-sensitive because they’re bringing equity from a previous sale.
What’s Still Moving, Specifically
When I try to think honestly about what’s actually going under contract right now, a few patterns come up:
- Priced right from day one. Sellers who came in at market instead of testing the high end are still seeing activity. The buyers who are out there are educated and they’re not paying a premium for wishful pricing.
- Updated mechanicals. A house with a newer roof, newer HVAC, and no obvious deferred maintenance is moving faster than one that needs work — because buyers right now have less appetite for the unknown, especially with insurance costs running at record highs.
- Smaller footprint in walkable areas. The 1,200-square-foot house two blocks from a coffee shop and a bus line is outperforming the 2,400-square-foot house at the end of a cul-de-sac in a far suburb.
- Flexible seller terms. Sellers willing to offer a rate buydown, cover closing costs, or extend a lease-back are getting more traction than those holding firm on price and offering nothing.
What This Actually Means If You’re Buying or Selling Right Now
If you’re a seller, the pending sales number matters to you because it tells you something about buyer psychology. There are fewer people actively making offers. That means your pricing and your presentation have less margin for error. A house that would have sold despite a bad listing photo in 2022 is not going to get that same grace period now.
If you’re a buyer, the unevenness is actually useful information. The markets where pending sales have fallen the sharpest — the ones that overheated the most — are often the same ones where you now have negotiating room you simply didn’t have two years ago. That’s not true everywhere. In the stickier neighborhoods I mentioned, you’re still competing.
The single most practical thing I’d tell anyone right now: stop reading the national number and start looking at days-on-market and price-reduction rates in the specific zip code you’re targeting. As of recent data, some Austin zip codes are running 45-plus days on average while others are still sitting under three weeks. Those are different markets requiring different strategies, even though they show up as one metro in a national headline.
Figure out which one you’re actually in — then make your move accordingly.